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Nothing else backup related is running at the same time (that I'm aware of).
I use Tweaking.com registry backup but that isn't scheduled to run until late evening whereas the Macrium backups are scheduled early morning.
I do have the backups going to a folder that is synced to my NAS using Synology Drive - I'm not sure if that does anything with VSS though.
I know I keep reiterating this, but everything was working as it should before I upgraded. No changes were made aside from that (at the time).
Now with all the troubleshooting I've been doing, I couldn't say what's all changed since then but I'm pretty confident in my technical abilities. Not a boast, just that all the obvious things to check have been checked.